ISW: The Kremlin's Plans Are Thwarted

• 30.06.2025, 7:46

The sanctions worked.

Russia is trying to increase production of combat aircraft in the medium to long term, but this process is significantly complicated by the impact of international sanctions, component shortages and a shortage of skilled workers.

This is said in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts from ISW cite data from the Finnish publication Yle, which based on satellite imagery recorded that the Kazan aircraft plant from mid-2024 to May 2025 will see an increase in production from 2026 to 2026. Russian authorities plan to expand production by 2026, but there are already significant difficulties.

In January 2025, Russia announced the launch of a new production facility, technology modernization and equipment procurement. It was planned that the Kazan plant would produce 4 Tu-214 aircraft in 2025, 7 in 2026, 17 in 2027 and 28 in 2028.

In fact, according to ISW, the company managed to deliver only two Tu-160M2s and two Tu-160Ms in 2024. The main reasons for the delays are sanctions restrictions, shortage of imported components and lack of manpower.

ISW predicts that even in the case of physical expansion of production, these factors will continue to hamper Russia's military aircraft program.