Russia's Largest Grain-growing Regions Face Crop Collapse
- 18.07.2025, 20:24
To a five-year low.
The main grain-growing regions in southern Russia - Rostov Region, Krasnodar and Stavropol Territories - will harvest the lowest grain crop in 5 years this year, the Institute for Agrarian Market Conjuncture (IKAR) predicts.
All three regions are facing a severe drought, which, according to farmers, is breaking multi-year records. On Friday, Kuban Governor Veniamin Kondratyev announced the introduction of a state of emergency (CS) in 8 more districts of the region, including northern districts, where the bulk of winter sowing is concentrated. Earlier, the state of emergency was introduced in 9 districts of the Krasnodar region, as well as in 19 districts of the Rostov region, which accounts for almost 10% of the country's total grain harvest.
"Due to the lack of moisture, crops are drying out, forming small and weak," Kondratiev complained on Friday. According to Kuban authorities, of the sown winter wheat, less than half of the crops (45%) are in "good condition."
In drought-prone regions, grain yields will fall by at least half, predicts the head of the Kuban branch of the Association of Peasant Farms of AKKOR, Alexander Shipulin. "In most cases it can be three or even four times lower," he sounds the alarm. - And those costs incurred by farmers for grain production will not be justified and recouped."
Rostov Region, the region's leading grain harvesting region, will get its lowest harvest in a decade this year, the region's acting governor Yuri Slyusar warned earlier. Last year, after several waves of frosts, the region harvested only 11.4 million tons instead of the planned 16 million tons. And this year's harvest may decrease by another 20%.
Russian Ministry of Agriculture continues to radiate optimism: according to its forecast, the total grain harvest in the country this year will exceed last year's by 5 million tons and will amount to 135 million tons. Nevertheless, the agency admits that as of July 2, the harvest was 4.3 times behind last year's harvest - 3.8 million tons against 16.5 million tons. The yield has dropped by almost a quarter - from 41 c/ha to 31 c/ha. Harvest in the Southern Federal District fell 5.7 times - to 2 million tons, in the North Caucasus - three times, to 1.5 million tons.
ICAR notes that the problems of the southern regions will be partially compensated by "normal" harvest in the Volga region and "very good" in the Urals. According to the institute's forecast, Russia will harvest 130 million tons of grain this year, including 84 million tons of wheat. However, these figures are likely to be downgraded, warns IKAR head Dmitri Rylko. "We are likely to be in for another compact harvest. But overlaid on top of this are also risks to the quality of two key products - food wheat and barley in Russia," Reuters quoted Rylko as saying.