OPEC+ Prepares A New Oil "waterfall"

• 4.09.2025, 12:28

How prices have reacted.

Oil prices continued to fall on September 4 amid possible OPEC+ plans to once again increase oil production, Reuters reports.

Brent crude oil fell 46 cents to $67.14 per barrel. The cost of U.S. WTI crude fell by 47 cents, to $63.5 per barrel.

According to Reuters, OPEC+ will consider increasing oil production in October at a meeting on September 7.

Reporters recall that OPEC+ has already announced a 2.2 million bpd increase in oil production between April and September 2025 as the cartel seeks to increase its own market share.

"This means OPEC+ is more comfortable with a lower price for Brent crude at around $60-65 a barrel than their previous target price of $70. This means that Brent futures are likely to fall into the $60-$65 per barrel range, pushing WTI into the $50-$60 per barrel range, raising questions about the economic viability of increasing U.S. shale oil supply," Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs also expect oil prices to fall, noting that production will exceed consumption of the crude, Bloomberg reported.

"We still see the current oversupply in oil markets intensifying," the analysts said, predicting the price of Brent crude to fall to the low $50s in late 2026.